11 Calculated Chaos: How Tinubu’s Camp Unknowingly Walks into Coalition Trap

11 Calculated Chaos: How Tinubu’s Camp Unknowingly Walks into Coalition Trap

 

 

In what is now being hailed by insiders as a masterstroke of political strategy, Nigeria’s opposition coalition has pulled off what many are calling “calculated chaos”—a high-level bait-and-switch move that left President Bola Tinubu’s camp scrambling.

 

At the center of this political chess game were two political parties: the All Democratic Alliance (ADA) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC). But only one was real. The other was bait.

 

The ADA Distraction

In early June, the opposition coalition—featuring heavyweights like Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and other political forces—floated the idea of launching a new party called the All Democratic Alliance (ADA). The move triggered immediate reactions from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), whose media proxies mocked the idea, labeling it “amateurish” and “unserious.” Unknown to them, that was exactly the plan.

 

According to sources close to the opposition bloc, ADA was never meant to exist beyond the headlines. It was a political decoy—a “poisoned pawn” in chess terms—meant to bait the APC into premature counterattacks and false security. And it worked.

 

Tinubu Camp Falls into the Trap

Reacting to the ADA announcement, some APC insiders reportedly rushed to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to create or back a rival faction of ADA, hoping to destabilize the new coalition before it could form. Influential figures like Daniel Bwala and other Tinubu-aligned commentators rolled out public relations campaigns mocking the new initiative.

 

But while they attacked ADA in the open, the coalition quietly finalized plans behind closed doors to adopt the African Democratic Congress (ADC)—an already existing, structurally sound political party with INEC recognition.

 

The opposition coalition used the announcement of a new party, ADA, as a distraction (“bait“) to mislead the Tinubu camp (APC), then pivoted to adopting the existing ADC as their platform, described as “calculated chaos” and a strategic move.

 

1. The ADA bait. The ADC pivot. The Tinubu camp walked straight into a political trap. This isn’t confusion. This is calculated chaos. Let me explain the genius of the coalition’s first chess move.

2. First, understand this: In politics, as in war, the loudest moves are often the least important. The coalition floated ADA, the All Democratic Alliance as bait. The goal? Trigger Tinubu’s camp into premature reaction. And it worked like magic.

3. Tinubu’s media machine fell for it.
They rushed to create counter narratives. Their surrogates mocked the ADA “coalition.” Insiders quickly rushed to INEC to create a rival ADA faction. But the coalition had long chosen ADC.
ADC, not ADA, was always the plan.

4. This is straight out of Sun Tzu’s Art of War: “All warfare is based on deception.” “Appear at points which the enemy must hasten to defend; march swiftly to places where you are not expected.” They made noise in ADA, But struck in ADC.

5. “Play a sucker to catch a sucker. Seem dumber than your mark.”- 48 laws of power. While APC folks like Bwala were mocking ADA calling it unserious, the coalition already locked down real talks with real structure under ADC. They weren’t confused. They were two steps ahead.

6. Tinubu’s allies were so eager to “drag” them, they overplayed their hand. Even the presidency’s digital warriors ran PR thread mocking the “so-called ADA.” Now they’re silent. Because the coalition checkmated them with ADC.

7. What we are seeing today is classic political misdirection. In chess, it’s called the poisoned pawn: You offer up a seemingly weak piece, your enemy takes the bait, and walks into a trap. ADA was the poisoned pawn. ADC was always checkmate.

8. This move also exposed one thing: FEAR. You don’t overreact to a joke. You don’t mock a ghost unless you feel its presence. The way Tinubu was talking in Nassarawa the other day shows he and his acolytes know a real coalition could unseat them. And it has begun.

9. “Men judge more by the eye than by the hand.” “It is double pleasure to deceive the deceiver.”- Machiavelli. ADA was the performance. ADC is the hand. The APC and Tinubu saw the curtain, but not the stagehand behind it.

10. So while they laughed at what they thought was the coalition’s move… The real machinery was being built behind closed doors. Now they must play catch-up. This isn’t just politics. This is political strategy 101.

11. If you thought this was confusion, think again. “When the fox wants to outwit the lion, it wears the mask of madness.” ADA was that mask. ADC is the lion’s leap. Just like one elder used to say “History has a new page, & some people just missed the first paragraph”.

 

The opposition coalition used the announcement of a new party, ADA, as a distraction (“bait”) to mislead the Tinubu camp (APC), then pivoted to adopting the existing ADC as their platform, described as “calculated chaos” and a strategic move.

 

Using Actor-Network Theory, key players are:

1. ADA: A non-human actor, used as bait to distract Tinubu’s camp.
2. ADC: A non-human actor, the coalition’s chosen platform.
3. Opposition Coalition: Human actors (e.g., Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi), orchestrating the strategy.
4. Tinubu Camp: Human actors (APC, Tinubu), targeted by the coalition.
5. INEC: A non-human actor, influencing strategy via party registration.

 

Evidence suggests defections (e.g., Aregbesola) show coalition momentum, but APC’s confidence and ADC’s internal conflicts pose challenges. The strategy’s impact remains uncertain.